The DRC Conflict Enters a Dangerous New Phase

The regionalization of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) crisis raises concerns about the potential for another multinational Congo War and emphasizes the need for a strong African-led response.

The DRC conflict has entered a more destabilizing phase, with M23 rebel forces, supported by Rwanda, rejecting calls from the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) for a pause in fighting. M23 continues its push to control more territory in eastern DRC, capturing major cities like Goma and Bukavu, and advancing towards Uvira and Butembo. If M23 controls the entire mineral-rich Kivu region, Rwanda would effectively gain territory nearly five times its size.

The DRC government forces (FARDC) have struggled to resist M23 advances, and Burundian forces, previously stationed in South Kivu, have started withdrawing, with the risk of direct confrontation between Rwandan and Burundian troops. Ugandan forces have also entered the DRC, with the ostensible goal of fighting the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), but their proximity to M23-controlled areas has raised suspicions of coordination between Uganda, Rwanda, and M23. Tensions increased after a deadly firefight in Goma between M23 and SADC peacekeeping forces, killing 20 soldiers and exacerbating regional tensions.

The humanitarian crisis in the DRC has worsened, with over 500,000 people displaced by M23's advances. The United Nations (UN) has reported over 3,000 civilian deaths, many from M23 attacks. The fighting threatens to escalate regional instability, reminiscent of the devastating First and Second Congo Wars that led to millions of deaths and severe economic losses.

The M23 conflict is rapidly regionalizing, with neighboring Burundi caught in the middle and Rwanda accused of supporting various armed groups, including the M23. The Congolese government has sought support from the SADC and even requested Chadian military assistance. This escalating crisis mirrors the pattern of the First and Second Congo Wars, which involved multiple African nations.

The M23 has adopted new tactics, including establishing governance structures in captured territories and absorbing Congolese government forces. It has also seized valuable mining sites, including those rich in coltan, cobalt, lithium, and gold. The M23 generates significant revenue from these resources, which fuels its military operations. Calls for the European Union (EU) to suspend agreements with Rwanda, which facilitate the extraction of raw materials for European industries, have grown.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have stalled, with multiple summits held without agreement. Despite these efforts, the M23 continues its offensive. However, the Congolese Catholic Bishops Conference (CENCO) has initiated talks, leading to a brief ceasefire before M23 resumed its attacks.

Several potential scenarios could unfold as the conflict intensifies. The M23 could consolidate military and administrative control of the Kivus, leading to Rwanda's de facto annexation of the region. Alternatively, the conflict could evolve into a national rebellion, with the M23 seeking to overthrow the DRC government. In the worst case, the crisis could spiral into a protracted regional war, reminiscent of the Second Congo War.

A diplomatic resolution is critical to preventing further devastation. Domestically, the DRC must address its governance issues, including strengthening democratic checks and balances, promoting transparency, and addressing citizenship issues among ethnic Rwandan groups in the east. Externally, efforts to pull back the M23 and its backers, alongside a ceasefire and international support for peacekeeping, will be essential for long-term stability.

The M23’s transformation from a dormant group in 2012 to a formidable military force in 2022 raises questions about how it gained such capabilities. Investigations point to heavy backing from Rwanda and Uganda, with evidence suggesting that M23 personnel are trained by these states, making the conflict even more complex and difficult to resolve.

In conclusion, the crisis in the DRC requires urgent, coordinated action from African leaders and the international community to prevent a regional war and address the root causes of the conflict. Without effective diplomacy and regional cooperation, the humanitarian toll and instability in the region will continue to escalate.