2025 German federal election, Germany's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU)

 

In the 2025 German federal election, Germany's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) emerged as the victors, securing the largest share of the vote. This victory positions the CDU to begin coalition talks to form the next government. However, the election also saw a record surge in support for the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has raised concerns about the growing influence of extremist factions in German politics.

The CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, garnered the most votes, securing a 28.6 percent share, which gives them a strong mandate to lead the next government. Despite this, the surge of AfD to second place, with 20.8 percent of the vote, is significant. The AfD's performance marks its best showing since its founding, indicating a substantial rise in populist and anti-immigrant sentiment within parts of Germany, particularly in the East. This was their most successful performance since World War II, reflecting the increasing disillusionment of certain voter demographics with mainstream parties.

Despite the AfD's strong performance, they are not expected to be included in the next coalition government. Friedrich Merz has ruled out a coalition with the far-right party, citing "fundamentally different views" on key issues. Although the CDU has previously worked with the AfD on individual policies, such as a bill on tougher immigration measures, the AfD's radical positions are too extreme for a broad-based coalition.

What Does This Mean for the Future?

The rise of the AfD highlights Germany's deepening political polarization, with both the far-right and far-left parties gaining ground. The election results suggest that German voters are increasingly turning to extremes on both sides of the political spectrum, particularly in response to concerns over immigration, economic instability, and the country's position within the European Union.

As for the CDU, their victory puts them in a strong position to lead the country, but Merz will face challenges in forming a working coalition. The most likely option is a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), despite their significant loss of support in this election. This would give the CDU and SPD a combined majority in the Bundestag. However, this would require significant compromises, especially on issues like immigration, taxation, and economic policy.

While the AfD's influence is growing, they remain a pariah in mainstream politics, with other parties unwilling to cooperate with them. This means that, despite their record support, the far-right party is likely to be "frozen out" of government formation talks.

Conclusion

The 2025 German election saw a significant shift in the political landscape, with the CDU emerging victorious and AfD making historic gains. While the CDU is expected to form the next government, the AfD's rise presents a growing challenge for Germany's political stability, as the country navigates the complexities of coalition-building in an increasingly polarized environment. Despite their strong performance, the AfD will likely remain on the fringes of government, with other parties unwilling to cooperate with their far-right agenda.