German Election: Who Won, Who Lost, and What’s Next?

 German Election: Who Won, Who Lost, and What’s Next?

In Germany's highly anticipated federal election, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged as the victor, setting the stage for their leader, Friedrich Merz, to become the country's next chancellor. However, the election results were far from straightforward. While the CDU secured the highest percentage of votes, both the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-left Die Linke were the big gainers of the election, leaving the nation facing new political dynamics.

Key Outcomes: A Shift to the Right and Left

In the election, the CDU/CSU partnership, which traditionally represents Germany’s center-right, won 28.6 percent of the vote, marking their victory. However, AfD surged to 20.8 percent, marking their strongest showing since the post-World War II period. The Social Democrats (SPD), led by Olaf Scholz, who had been chancellor until now, finished third with 16.4 percent, suffering a nearly 10-point drop from the 2021 election results.

In terms of parliamentary seats, the CDU/CSU secured 208 seats, AfD won 152, the SPD obtained 120, Greens grabbed 85, and Die Linke made gains, winning 64 seats.

Notable Party Performances:

• Die Linke saw a notable boost, scoring 8.8 percent, up significantly from the last election, with especially strong support in Berlin.
• Greens received 11.6 percent of the vote, slightly down from their previous performance.
• The FDP, part of the outgoing coalition, suffered a heavy defeat, receiving just 4.3 percent, below the 5 percent threshold needed for parliamentary seats.

Who is Friedrich Merz?

Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, is a veteran politician and a multimillionaire lawyer. He has had an extensive career, including serving as a member of the European Parliament in the 1980s and 1990s. Despite falling out of favor within his own party during Angela Merkel's chancellorship, Merz returned as CDU leader in 2022 after Merkel’s retirement.

Merz, known for his social conservatism, has been vocal about the need for European independence from the United States. He has pledged to govern Germany reliably, while advocating for stronger European defense cooperation, particularly with regard to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

AfD’s Surge: A Historic Rise

The AfD’s result, with 20.8 percent of the vote, represents a historic rise for the far-right in Germany. This is the party’s best result since its founding, and its strong showing highlights its growing populist appeal. The AfD's platform is centered around anti-immigration policies and Euro-skepticism, which has gained traction, especially in the eastern parts of Germany. Despite this, the AfD is not expected to be included in any coalition talks due to its extreme political views.

However, the AfD’s success has allowed them to position themselves as a mainstream political force, which is a significant shift for a party that once had little political influence. Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the AfD, has expressed the party’s willingness to join a coalition, but Friedrich Merz has ruled out forming a partnership with them.

The Left’s Surprising Success

The Die Linke party, which advocates for socialism and higher taxes on the wealthy, also gained traction in the election, securing 8.8 percent of the vote. The party has seen rising support, particularly among younger voters, and performed well in urban centers like Berlin. Despite these gains, Die Linke will still find itself on the margins of the coalition talks, as its platform conflicts with the center-right policies of the CDU.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist left-wing party that split from Die Linke last year, also performed well but failed to cross the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary seats, garnering 4.97 percent of the vote.

The Future of the Coalition Government

With Merz set to become chancellor, his first task will be forming a coalition government. In order to secure a majority, he will need at least 316 seats in the Bundestag. While he has ruled out working with the AfD, his best chance for a coalition would likely be with the SPD, despite their significant drop in support. A CDU/CSU-SPD alliance could secure 328 seats, enough for a majority.

However, Merz may also look to other potential partners. A three-party coalition involving the Greens and Die Linke is another possibility, but such a partnership would require significant compromises from both sides. The CDU’s policies, particularly on issues like immigration and economic reform, are at odds with the Greens and Die Linke, both of which favor higher taxes on the wealthy and more progressive social policies.

Foreign Policy Implications

Germany's next government will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Europe, especially with ongoing challenges like the war in Ukraine and European defense. Merz has already emphasized his commitment to European unity, and his government will likely seek to deepen Germany's role in European security.

Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, urged Germany to form a coalition government quickly, as key decisions on European defense and foreign policy require Germany's participation.

What’s Next for the AfD?

Despite their exclusion from coalition talks, the AfD celebrated its historic rise as a victory. Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of the AfD, declared that the party had now positioned itself as Germany’s political center, claiming they had left the fringes behind. The party has pledged to keep pushing for influence, and Weidel has threatened that if the CDU forms a coalition with left-wing parties, it would be “electoral fraud”, implying that the AfD could take the lead in future elections.

Conclusion

The results of the 2025 German federal election signal a dramatic shift in the political landscape. With the CDU/CSU winning the most votes and Friedrich Merz poised to become Germany’s next chancellor, the country faces a new era of leadership. However, the success of the AfD and Die Linke highlights the growing polarization within German politics, with populist and radical ideologies gaining ground on both ends of the spectrum.

As Merz works to form a coalition, the future of Germany will be shaped by how he navigates these divisions. Whether he chooses a more centrist alliance with the SPD or a more fragmented, left-right coalition with the Greens and Die Linke, the next government will face significant challenges in uniting a deeply divided nation.